I'll be brief.
I hate the National League. It's pretty easy to. In a world where two straight All-Star wins is a huge anomaly, and where big media markets (Yankees, Red Sox) are pretty much AL-exclusive, it's difficult to get excited about the National League. Here are the easiest ways the National League can change for the better and stop being the ugly stepsister to the AL powerhouses.
1. Adopt the DH
Okay, unpopular move. But really, this is what makes interleague play so painful and NL games so aggravating to watch. Baseball is a tough enough sell to young'uns who think it's boring, it's slow, etc. But if you take away an offensive opportunity 3-4 times a game by inserting a hitter whose sole purpose is just to avoid getting hurt and maybe try to sacrifice a runner over, you're just going through a pointless formality. Adopting the DH would make the NL more interesting, more relevant, there would be better opportunities for free agents and you might see more star power in the NL (which it kind of lacks). The only good thing about pitchers hitting is when they occasionally get a hit. Which never really happens anymore. Bring in the DH.
2. Get a team to compete with the Phillies.
Basically, the Phillies will be the dominant team in the NL for years to come because they have suddenly realized that being the Yankees or Red Sox in a league of Marlins is a good strategy. Jury is still out why no other teams have figured this out earlier. But come on, if you give the Dodgers a competent (and able) owner with some cash to spend, you could see a transformation of that franchise and the NL. Bring in some people to watch the Dodgers with a couple big names, and you could have the makings of a powerhouse in a division where the best team (The Giants) can't even score a run.
3. Amp up the rivalries
Everyone watches when the Red Sox play the Yankees. It's the greatest rivalry in baseball, in sports. Name the second best in baseball... nothing. Dodgers and Giants? It's a tough sell with the Dodgers being irrelevant and laughable, but if you played up this rivalry, and got some people to LA to watch baseball, the NL could become an interesting place in the future. Make these games a must-see on Sunday Night Baseball. Bring in some fans.
And that's it, essentially. The AL continually beats up on the NL teams, usually due to bigger markets, but often just because of the structure of the NL. If Major League Baseball could finally resolve its DH problem, we could see a revival of what was once the best league.
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Friday, July 8, 2011
Why Moneyball is irrelevant
Stop pushing Billy Beane on us. Already subjected to endless praise of Moneyball, the book (which, in all honesty, was more of a flourish on the work that was already done by Bill James), Brad Pitt has launched a Moneyball project that is scheduled to be released in the fall. It looks well done - kind of like a Social Network, for a different audience (read: no audience in particular). However, is it really a worthwhile project to look into? Is it still relevant in the modern world? A look at modern baseball statistics, and modern World Series, might prove different.
There's no denying that, at the time of Moneyball's original publication, the Oakland A's, the Billy Beane-led subject of the book, were actually performing remarkably well. Of course, it could be due to some amount of luck in the trio of great pitchers (Hudson, Mulder, Zito), all of whom eventually left. But since 2003, the book's publication date, here's a list of the World Series winners and their yearly salaries:
2004 - Red Sox - 127.3 million (second highest)
2005 - White Sox - 75 million (13)
2006 - Cardinals - 89 million (11)
2007 - Red Sox - 143 million (2)
2008 - Phillies - 98 million (12)
2009 - Yankees - 201 million (1)
2010 - Giants - 98.6 million (9)
Meaning, no team finished that won the World Series since Billy Beane's "revolution" were in the bottom half in salary. Since then, the White Sox and the Phillies, the two lowest ranked teams in terms of relative salary, have become financial giants (especially the Phillies' recent pitching acquisitions). Meanwhile, how have Billy Beane's A's fared? They have payed pretty much a consistent $55-59 million since 2003, which usually lands them in the bottom half, if not the bottom 10. And in 2010, with a payroll of 51 million, they were third to lowest in payroll. Meanwhile, they have been to the playoffs once since the publication of Moneyball (in what is arguably the weakest division in baseball). 2010, when they finished .500, was the first time they had gotten back to that mark since 2006. And remember, even in the height of Moneyball hype, they did not win a playoff series.
The point being? Maybe money does win championships. It's not everything - if it was, the Yankees would win every year (then again, pitching also wins championships). And the Moneyball-era A's team did win a lot of regular season games. But they didn't win anything when it counted. It's soon becoming clear that, despite Moneyball's belated entrance into Hollywood, Billy Beane is no longer relevant in baseball.
There's no denying that, at the time of Moneyball's original publication, the Oakland A's, the Billy Beane-led subject of the book, were actually performing remarkably well. Of course, it could be due to some amount of luck in the trio of great pitchers (Hudson, Mulder, Zito), all of whom eventually left. But since 2003, the book's publication date, here's a list of the World Series winners and their yearly salaries:
2004 - Red Sox - 127.3 million (second highest)
2005 - White Sox - 75 million (13)
2006 - Cardinals - 89 million (11)
2007 - Red Sox - 143 million (2)
2008 - Phillies - 98 million (12)
2009 - Yankees - 201 million (1)
2010 - Giants - 98.6 million (9)
Meaning, no team finished that won the World Series since Billy Beane's "revolution" were in the bottom half in salary. Since then, the White Sox and the Phillies, the two lowest ranked teams in terms of relative salary, have become financial giants (especially the Phillies' recent pitching acquisitions). Meanwhile, how have Billy Beane's A's fared? They have payed pretty much a consistent $55-59 million since 2003, which usually lands them in the bottom half, if not the bottom 10. And in 2010, with a payroll of 51 million, they were third to lowest in payroll. Meanwhile, they have been to the playoffs once since the publication of Moneyball (in what is arguably the weakest division in baseball). 2010, when they finished .500, was the first time they had gotten back to that mark since 2006. And remember, even in the height of Moneyball hype, they did not win a playoff series.
The point being? Maybe money does win championships. It's not everything - if it was, the Yankees would win every year (then again, pitching also wins championships). And the Moneyball-era A's team did win a lot of regular season games. But they didn't win anything when it counted. It's soon becoming clear that, despite Moneyball's belated entrance into Hollywood, Billy Beane is no longer relevant in baseball.
Saturday, June 18, 2011
Star Wars Episode III: Rise of the Red Sox
It’s mid-June, and the Red Sox have seized the division lead with a recent 12-2 tear, lighting up the A.L. East opponents with offense (an embarrassment of the mediocre Blue Jays), pitching (gems by Beckett at Tampa and New York) and a bit of both (the Yankees sweep). Once the Oakland sweep got underway, it seemed like the Red Sox had finally awakened from an early season hibernation and turned into the behemoth everyone expected. But really, who recognizes the team that agonizingly lost to the Yankees in 2003? Ortiz and Varitek are still there (with Varitek, ever the grizzled but astoundingly overrated face of the Red Sox franchise, finally relegated to occasionally coming off the bench), but the “idiots” of 2004 (Damon, Ramirez, and, to a lesser extent, Millar) have been replaced by a lineup that resembles a classic Yankee-esque big money lineup. Cue the ominous bell tolls.
And to be fair, this isn’t the first time the Red Sox have bought success. Even the 2004 championship came at a hefty price – do you really see the 86 year drought ending without the $160 million venture on Manny? But since then, under Prince Theo, the Red Sox have morphed into a Yankees lookalike, with the middle of their lineup (Gonzalez, Ortiz, Crawford; hell, even throw in Salty) coming from free agency. Is this what we wanted? Sure, during those agonizing years before the 04 championship, it seemed like what any Red Sox fan wanted was to be able to win rings, whatever the cost. But now it seems like what would’ve happened if, after Jedi, Luke had suddenly seized control of the universe and went, hmmm, you know all those things that my dad did that were so awful? Maybe I’ll give them another shot…
The rallying cry for Red Sox fans against the Yankees for millions of years was that they bought their championships, that their money was the only reason that the team was blowing the Red Sox out of the water, that Red Sox fans, having endured heartbreak, were true baseball fans and not fair-weather ones. But now, suddenly young Skywalker is shooting lightning out of his hands and giggling like Palpatine on crack. And sure, maybe his finger lightning bolts (is this Palpatine’s only freaking power? Always wondered this. Is his force just so strong that it flows freely in the form of lightning out of his fingers? You’d think that Vader could’ve found a way around that eventually. The guy’s like, 88000 years old and the only thing he has going for him that he can tase you, bro) are still headed in the right direction, but does it feel the same? Pedroia, Bucholz, Ellsbury, Lester, and Papelbon are keeping this team’s homegrown talent going, but how long will it be before the Red Sox are blowing money like Mike Tyson? Only this time, there might not be a Hangover cameo to pay the bills…
And maybe this is a dramatic overreaction. Maybe they’ll collapse. Maybe they’ll turn into the Red Sox of yore, maybe Theo will stop spending and start cultivating, maybe these free agents will turn out to be busts (Gonzalez certainly doesn’t seem heading down this road) Maybe I’m the only one who lies awake late into the night, pondering the implications of Luke’s brief flirtation with the Dark Side (N.B. – I’m kidding. Maybe). Could Luke turn into a Sith Lord? Like father, like son? Who knows, they didn’t make Return of the Jedi sequels, only prequels (note to George Lucas, because I know you’re reading – don’t think of pulling this shit. If there are suddenly sequels to the original trilogy and Jar Jar’s progeny make a prolonged appearance, I accept all blame). What happens if the Red Sox turn into an Evil Empire? After tasting victory twice, who’s to say that we can’t keep buying out the competition and turn into a wannabe Yankees? Is it worth it to win championships if we become the second-most hated club in the league? I don’t know. But I’ll keep watching. Because it’s so much fun to watch them win.
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